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  • Caribbean Stud Blackjack Some claim that the gambler's fallacy is a cognitive bias produced by a psychological heuristic called the representativeness heuristic. By adopting the strategy outlined in the book you virtually eliminate the house advantage, allowing you to play out the wager requirements, without losing the free bonuses. You flip a fair coin 20 times and it comes up heads every time. What is the probability it will come up tails next time? (Answer: 0.5) If the 'Banker' has an initial total of 5, the 'Banker' draws another card when the 'Player's' third card is a 4, 5, 6, or 7. Baccarat The slot machines are where casinos would like you to play your free cash. But smart players give them a swerve and head straight to the card tables. To be more precise they head for the Blackjack table. Gaming machines Original Story Consider players with 90 and 10 pennies respectively, repeating the game 100 times. The player with 90 pennies is expected to win 90 out of 100 complete games, winning 10 pennies each game. However, he is also expected to lose 10 games, each time forfeiting all 90 of his pennies. So after the series of 100 games, the richer player is expected to win 90*10=900 pennies, and lose 10*90=900 pennies. Despite the fact that after any single game, one player ends up with all the pennies, the expected result over many games is for both players to break even. You flip a fair coin 20 times and it comes up heads every time. What is the probability it will come up tails next time? (Answer: 0.5) [edit] This is the fallacious step in the argument. If the coin is fair, then by definition the probability of tails must always be .5, never more (or less), and the probability of heads must always be .5, never less (or more). While a run of five heads is only 1 in 32 (0.03125), it is 1 in 32 before the coin is first tossed. After the first four tosses the results are no longer unknown, so they don't count. The probability of five consecutive heads is the same as four successive heads followed by one tails. Tails is no more likely. Each of the two possible outcomes has equal probability no matter how many times the coin has been flipped previously and no matter what the result. Reasoning that it is more likely that the next toss will be a tail than a head due to the past tosses is the fallacy. The fallacy is the idea that a run of luck in the past somehow influences the odds of a bet in the future. Random number games are based upon the selection of random numbers, either from a computerized random number generator or from other gaming equipment. Random number games may be played at a table, such as Roulette, or through the purchase of paper tickets or cards, such as Keno or Bingo.
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